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Trygg.Lade vs Lorenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 12:30

Trygg.Lade

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lorenskog

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.3%0-28.1%0-35.9%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.0%1-18.8%1-29.7%1-37.1%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.4%2-15.3%2-25.8%2-34.3%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.1%3-22.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.4% 3.95 -11.7%

Draw 22.0% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 57.6% 1.68 -3.2%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.48 -5.3%

Over 3.5 41.0% 2.20 -9.8%

BTTS 61.3% 1.48 -9.3%

Win probability 1X2

Trygg.Lade (H) 20.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -11.7%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

Lorenskog (A) 57.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.3%

A 58% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trygg.Lade1.2

Lorenskog2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRYGG.LADE · PPG 1.00

LORENSKOG · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Trygg.Lade face Lorenskog in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trygg.Lade a 20% chance, the draw 22% and Lorenskog 58%, so Lorenskog are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Trygg.Lade and 2.2 for Lorenskog (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trygg.Lade are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Lorenskog. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.3%.

Trygg.Lade vs Lorenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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