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Trygg.Lade vs Lorenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 12:30

Trygg.Lade

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Lorenskog

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.3%0-28.1%0-35.9%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.0%1-18.8%1-29.7%1-37.1%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.4%2-15.3%2-25.8%2-34.3%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.1%3-22.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.4% 25.3% 3.95 -11.7%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 57.6% 59.5% 1.68 -3.2%

Over 2.5 64.0% 67.6% 1.48 -5.3%

Over 3.5 41.0% 45.5% 2.20 -9.8%

BTTS 61.3% 67.6% 1.48 -9.3%

Home O1.5 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

Away O1.5 65.7% 65.4% 1.53 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.3%

A 58% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 0–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trygg.Lade1.2

Lorenskog2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TRYGG.LADE · PPG 1.00

LORENSKOG · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Trygg.Lade (H) 20.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -11.7%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

Lorenskog (A) 57.6%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trygg.Lade face Lorenskog in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trygg.Lade a 20% chance, the draw 22% and Lorenskog 58%, so Lorenskog are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Trygg.Lade and 2.2 for Lorenskog (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trygg.Lade are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Lorenskog. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 1-4.

Trygg.Lade vs Lorenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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