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Rana vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 12:00

Rana

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Follo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.3%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.4%1-18.9%1-26.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 2.05 +7.6%

Draw 22.1% 3.70 -10.9%

Away win 25.4% 2.95 -15.0%

Over 2.5 65.6% 1.45 -4.9%

Over 3.5 42.7% 2.15 -8.2%

BTTS 63.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Win probability 1X2

Rana (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +7.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.9%

Follo (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.4%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rana2.1

Follo1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RANA · PPG 1.40

FOLLO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Rana face Follo in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rana a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Follo 25%, so Rana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Rana and 1.4 for Follo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rana are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Follo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Rana vs Follo Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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