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Honefoss vs Eidsvold Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 11:00

Honefoss

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eidsvold

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.8%0-27.7%0-35.1%0-4+4.0%1 1-05.0%1-19.8%1-29.7%1-36.4%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.1%2-16.1%2-26.1%2-34.0%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% 40.8% 2.45 -20.9%

Draw 20.8% 26.0% 3.85 -11.9%

Away win 52.5% 43.5% 2.30 +20.8%

Over 2.5 64.0% 74.1% 1.35 -13.6%

Over 3.5 41.3% 54.1% 1.85 -23.6%

BTTS 61.7% 76.9% 1.30 -19.8%

Home O1.5 42.9% 58.8% 1.70 -27.1%

Away O1.5 50.8% 60.6% 1.65 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.7%

A 52% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honefoss1.3

Eidsvold2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HONEFOSS · PPG 2.00

EIDSVOLD · PPG 2.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Honefoss (H) 26.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.9%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.9%

Eidsvold (A) 52.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honefoss face Eidsvold in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honefoss a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Eidsvold 53%, so Eidsvold are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Honefoss and 2.0 for Eidsvold (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honefoss are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.60 for Eidsvold. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Honefoss vs Eidsvold Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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