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Mushuc Runa vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 19:00

Mushuc Runa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tecnico U.

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 52% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+11.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-18.4%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-111.3%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-17.6%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 50.0% 2.00 +11.4%

Draw 28.4% 30.8% 3.25 -7.7%

Away win 15.9% 26.7% 3.75 -40.4%

Over 2.5 30.1% 44.4% 2.25 -32.3%

Over 3.5 12.8% 23.8% 4.20 -46.2%

BTTS 32.3% 51.3% 1.95 -37.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.3%

H 56% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.7%

#2 0–0 14.7%

#3 2–0 13.3%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa1.3

Tecnico U.0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 2.00

TECNICO U. · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa (H) 55.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +11.4%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.7%

Tecnico U. (A) 15.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -40.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa face Tecnico U. in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Tecnico U. 16%, so Mushuc Runa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mushuc Runa and 0.6 for Tecnico U. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Tecnico U.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Mushuc Runa vs Tecnico U. Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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