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Haukar vs V. Olafsvik Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 16:00

Haukar

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

V. Olafsvik

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.6%0-20.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.6%1-12.4%1-21.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-03.3%2-14.8%2-23.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.4%3-16.5%3-24.8%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-119.4%4+-214.3%4+-37.1%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 1.44 -8.7%

Draw 17.2% 4.20 -16.7%

Away win 19.4% 4.80 -4.1%

Over 2.5 80.7% 1.28 +3.3%

Over 3.5 57.1% 1.71 -2.4%

BTTS 68.1% 1.36 -7.4%

Win probability 1X2

Haukar (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -8.7%

Draw 17.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -16.7%

V. Olafsvik (A) 19.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 89%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob68.1%

H 63% / xG 4.0-1.5 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.6%

#2 3–1 6.5%

#3 5–1 5.3%

#4 4–2 4.9%

#5 2–1 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haukar4.0

V. Olafsvik1.5

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUKAR · PPG 2.50

V. OLAFSVIK · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=63.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haukar face V. Olafsvik in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haukar a 63% chance, the draw 17% and V. Olafsvik 19%, so Haukar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Haukar and 1.5 for V. Olafsvik (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haukar are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for V. Olafsvik. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Haukar vs V. Olafsvik Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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