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Magni vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 18:00

Magni

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.9%0-22.2%0-31.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-02.0%1-14.7%1-25.4%1-34.2%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.5%2-15.8%2-26.8%2-35.3%2-4+5.3%3 3-02.1%3-14.9%3-25.6%3-34.4%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-15.5%4+-26.4%4+-34.9%4+-4+5.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 33.8% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.0% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 64.0% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob70.3%

H 45% / xG 2.5-2.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 2–1 5.8%

#3 3–2 5.6%

#4 1–2 5.4%

#5 1–1 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magni2.5

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir2.3

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGNI · PPG 1.86

FJARDABYGGD / LEIKNIR · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Magni (H) 45.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (A) 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Magni face Fjardabyggd / Leiknir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magni a 45% chance, the draw 21% and Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 34%, so Magni are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Magni and 2.3 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magni are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.67 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir.

Magni vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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