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Fjolnir vs KFG Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Fjolnir

PPG 1.88 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

KFG

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.79 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.8%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.7%1-13.0%1-21.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.3%2-15.7%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-17.4%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-018.3%4+-119.8%4+-210.7%4+-33.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.4% 82.0% 1.22 -9.2%

Draw 16.5% 16.7% 6.00 -0.6%

Away win 9.1% 13.3% 7.50 -19.1%

Over 2.5 73.0% 83.3% 1.20 -12.4%

Over 3.5 54.1% 66.2% 1.51 -18.3%

BTTS 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% 35.2% 2.84 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 82%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.8%

H 74% / xG 3.9-1.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 4–1✓ 7.1%

#3 3–0 6.8%

#4 4–0 6.6%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjolnir3.9

KFG1.1

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FJOLNIR · PPG 1.88

KFG · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.79 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fjolnir (H) 74.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -9.2%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -0.6%

KFG (A) 9.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjolnir face KFG in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjolnir a 74% chance, the draw 17% and KFG 9%, so Fjolnir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Fjolnir and 1.1 for KFG (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjolnir are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.57 for KFG. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Fjolnir vs KFG Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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