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Kormákur / Hvöt vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Kormákur / Hvöt

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Thróttur Vogar

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.8%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.1%1-15.4%1-22.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.7%2-18.2%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.2%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-113.1%4+-26.9%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.1% 61.7% 1.62 +5.5%

Draw 16.2% 24.4% 4.10 -20.2%

Away win 18.7% 25.6% 3.90 -16.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 71.4% 1.40 -4.2%

Over 3.5 47.5% 52.6% 1.90 -9.8%

BTTS 62.9% 73.5% 1.36 -14.5%

Home O1.5 78.3% 69.4% 1.44 +12.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 45.0% 2.22 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.9%

H 65% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 3–0 7.7%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kormákur / Hvöt3.0

Thróttur Vogar1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KORMÁKUR / HVÖT · PPG 1.86

THRÓTTUR VOGAR · PPG 0.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.95 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kormákur / Hvöt (H) 65.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +5.5%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -20.2%

Thróttur Vogar (A) 18.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kormákur / Hvöt face Thróttur Vogar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kormákur / Hvöt a 65% chance, the draw 16% and Thróttur Vogar 19%, so Kormákur / Hvöt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Kormákur / Hvöt and 1.1 for Thróttur Vogar (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kormákur / Hvöt are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.00 for Thróttur Vogar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.6%.

Kormákur / Hvöt vs Thróttur Vogar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - 2. Deild Predictions