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Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 14:00

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Haukar

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.7%0-23.3%0-32.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.2%1-17.7%1-26.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.1%3-15.6%3-25.0%3-33.0%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.7%4+-24.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 31.3% 3.20 +47.8%

Draw 21.3% 26.7% 3.75 -12.1%

Away win 32.5% 54.6% 1.83 -40.5%

Over 2.5 67.2% 76.9% 1.30 -12.6%

Over 3.5 46.5% 58.1% 1.72 -20.0%

BTTS 67.4% 76.9% 1.30 -12.4%

Home O1.5 61.4% 53.2% 1.88 +15.4%

Away O1.5 48.6% 70.9% 1.41 -31.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob67.4%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2✓ 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir2.1

Haukar1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FJARDABYGGD / LEIKNIR · PPG 1.62

HAUKAR · PPG 1.43

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (H) 46.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +47.8%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.1%

Haukar (A) 32.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -40.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir face Haukar in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjardabyggd / Leiknir a 46% chance, the draw 21% and Haukar 33%, so Fjardabyggd / Leiknir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir and 1.8 for Haukar (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjardabyggd / Leiknir are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.43 for Haukar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Haukar Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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