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Haukar vs KFG Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Regular Season - 15 ·Wednesday, July 29, 2026, 19:15

Haukar

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

KFG

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.3%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.9%1-11.6%1-20.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.3%2-13.7%2-21.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-15.8%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-029.0%4+-124.9%4+-210.7%4+-33.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.1% — — —

Draw 16.3% — — —

Away win 8.5% — — —

Over 2.5 79.3% — — —

Over 3.5 60.3% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 21.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 75% / xG 4.7-0.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 7.9%

#2 5–0 7.3%

#3 4–1 6.8%

#4 3–0 6.8%

#5 5–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haukar4.7

KFG0.9

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.3% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUKAR · PPG 2.71

KFG · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.80 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haukar (H) 75.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

KFG (A) 8.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Haukar face KFG in Iceland - 2. Deild on Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haukar a 75% chance, the draw 16% and KFG 9%, so Haukar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.7 for Haukar and 0.9 for KFG (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haukar are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.50 for KFG.

Haukar vs KFG Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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