Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Banga vs Suduva Marijampole

Banga vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:45

Banga

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Suduva Marijampole

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-110.6%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-113.0%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-18.0%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.3%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Draw 27.6% 34.5% 2.90 -12.0%

Away win 26.2% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

Over 2.5 45.9% 46.5% 2.15 -1.3%

Over 3.5 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

BTTS 49.6% 52.4% 1.91 -5.3%

Home O1.5 34.0% 38.2% 2.62 -10.9%

Away O1.5 20.4% 36.4% 2.75 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga1.2

Suduva Marijampole0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.80

SUDUVA MARIJAMPOLE · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.0%

Suduva Marijampole (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face Suduva Marijampole in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Suduva Marijampole 26%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Banga and 0.8 for Suduva Marijampole (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.30 for Suduva Marijampole. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Banga vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions