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Kuressaare vs Laagri Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:00

Kuressaare

PPG 1.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Laagri

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-19.8%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.2%1-112.7%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.3%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 38.2% 2.62 +14.0%

Draw 27.4% 30.3% 3.30 -5.8%

Away win 29.0% 43.5% 2.30 -20.0%

Over 2.5 50.3% 59.9% 1.67 -16.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.7%

BTTS 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Home O1.5 37.4% 44.4% 2.25 -15.8%

Away O1.5 35.7% 50.0% 2.00 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kuressaare1.3

Laagri1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KURESSAARE · PPG 1.10

LAAGRI · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kuressaare (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +14.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.8%

Laagri (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kuressaare face Laagri in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kuressaare a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Laagri 29%, so Kuressaare are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kuressaare and 1.2 for Laagri (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kuressaare are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.90 for Laagri. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.9%.

Kuressaare vs Laagri Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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