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Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

Trans Narva

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Kalju Nomme

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-115.4%0-213.4%0-37.7%0-4+5.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.6%1-29.2%1-35.3%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.1%2-13.6%2-23.1%2-31.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.7% 25.0% 4.00 -19.9%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 58.6% 58.8% 1.70 -0.4%

Over 2.5 50.3% 59.9% 1.67 -16.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.7%

BTTS 49.6% 61.7% 1.62 -19.7%

Home O1.5 32.1% 30.8% 3.25 +4.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 59.9% 1.67 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob49.6%

A 59% / xG 0.7-1.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.4%

#2 0–2✓ 13.4%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trans Narva0.7

Kalju Nomme1.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANS NARVA · PPG 1.20

KALJU NOMME · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.05 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Trans Narva (H) 16.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -19.9%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Kalju Nomme (A) 58.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trans Narva face Kalju Nomme in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trans Narva a 17% chance, the draw 25% and Kalju Nomme 59%, so Kalju Nomme are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Trans Narva and 1.7 for Kalju Nomme (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trans Narva are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.00 for Kalju Nomme. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Trans Narva vs Kalju Nomme Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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