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Adelaide City vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 09:30

Adelaide City

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NE MetroStars

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.4%0-25.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.8%1-110.0%1-28.7%1-35.0%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.8%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 2.80 -4.0%

Draw 24.0% 3.55 -8.9%

Away win 41.7% 2.10 -12.4%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.50 -4.0%

Over 3.5 40.0% 2.38 -4.8%

BTTS 61.7% 1.50 -7.4%

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -4.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

NE MetroStars (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -20.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.7%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City1.6

NE MetroStars1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.33

NE METROSTARS · PPG 2.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.43)

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face NE MetroStars in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 34% chance, the draw 24% and NE MetroStars 42%, so NE MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Adelaide City and 1.7 for NE MetroStars (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.43 for NE MetroStars. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Adelaide City vs NE MetroStars Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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