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St George City vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 09:15

St George City

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-114.5%0-28.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.6%2-16.2%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.9%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 2.95 -4.1%

Draw 31.5% 3.20 +0.8%

Away win 36.0% 2.20 -20.8%

Over 2.5 43.6% 1.93 -15.8%

Over 3.5 22.9% 3.30 -14.7%

BTTS 48.5% 1.70 -17.5%

Win probability 1X2

St George City (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -4.1%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.8%

NWS Spirit (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 14.5%

#4 1–0✓ 12.2%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City0.9

NWS Spirit1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 1.36

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City face NWS Spirit in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City a 33% chance, the draw 32% and NWS Spirit 36%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for St George City and 1.1 for NWS Spirit (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.00 for NWS Spirit. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-0.

St George City vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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