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Bankstown City Lions vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:00

Bankstown City Lions

PPG 1.77 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hurstville FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.7%0-23.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.3%1-19.3%1-26.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.1%3-16.0%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.7%4+-23.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 69.4% 1.44 -27.4%

Draw 22.5% 23.1% 4.33 -1.5%

Away win 27.1% 20.0% 5.00 +21.3%

Over 2.5 63.8% 65.4% 1.53 -2.4%

Over 3.5 42.9% 47.2% 2.12 -9.0%

BTTS 64.3% 65.4% 1.53 -1.6%

Home O1.5 55.4% 71.9% 1.39 -23.0%

Away O1.5 45.0% 33.6% 2.98 +34.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bankstown City Lions2.0

Hurstville FC1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BANKSTOWN CITY LIONS · PPG 1.77

HURSTVILLE FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bankstown City Lions (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -27.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.5%

Hurstville FC (A) 27.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bankstown City Lions face Hurstville FC in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bankstown City Lions a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Hurstville FC 27%, so Bankstown City Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bankstown City Lions and 1.5 for Hurstville FC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bankstown City Lions are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.00 for Hurstville FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +38.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Bankstown City Lions vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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