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Northern Tigers vs Rydalmere Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 06:30

Northern Tigers

PPG 2.08 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rydalmere Lions

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.1%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.2%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 64.5% 1.55 -28.2%

Draw 24.8% 27.0% 3.70 -4.9%

Away win 28.8% 20.8% 4.80 +22.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 63.7% 1.57 -16.2%

Over 3.5 32.3% 41.5% 2.41 -22.2%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 66.2% 1.51 -31.4%

Away O1.5 32.0% 31.4% 3.18 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northern Tigers1.5

Rydalmere Lions1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHERN TIGERS · PPG 2.08

RYDALMERE LIONS · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Northern Tigers (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -28.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.9%

Rydalmere Lions (A) 28.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northern Tigers face Rydalmere Lions in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northern Tigers a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Rydalmere Lions 29%, so Northern Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Northern Tigers and 1.0 for Rydalmere Lions (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northern Tigers are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.62 for Rydalmere Lions. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Northern Tigers vs Rydalmere Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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