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Prospect United vs Mt Druitt Town Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:00

Prospect United

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mt Druitt Town

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.3%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.2%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.6%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Draw 24.8% 24.4% 4.10 +1.0%

Away win 29.0% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 32.3% 47.2% 2.12 -31.5%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.5% 1.74 -21.0%

Away O1.5 35.7% 51.3% 1.95 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prospect United1.5

Mt Druitt Town1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PROSPECT UNITED · PPG 0.62

MT DRUITT TOWN · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Prospect United (H) 46.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -11.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.0%

Mt Druitt Town (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prospect United face Mt Druitt Town in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prospect United a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Mt Druitt Town 29%, so Prospect United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Prospect United and 1.2 for Mt Druitt Town (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prospect United are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.62 for Mt Druitt Town.

Prospect United vs Mt Druitt Town Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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