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Blacktown Spartans vs Inter Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:15

Blacktown Spartans

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Inter Lions

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.0%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.4%1-15.9%1-23.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.8%2-18.5%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-112.0%4+-26.5%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 67.6% 1.48 -1.4%

Draw 16.6% 22.2% 4.50 -15.2%

Away win 16.8% 21.1% 4.75 -12.1%

Over 2.5 67.6% 71.4% 1.40 -5.4%

Over 3.5 47.4% 51.0% 1.96 -7.1%

BTTS 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Home O1.5 78.3% 73.0% 1.37 +7.3%

Away O1.5 35.4% 37.9% 2.64 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.9%

H 67% / xG 2.9-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–0 7.5%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown Spartans2.9

Inter Lions1.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN SPARTANS · PPG 2.62

INTER LIONS · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.80 for Home, form 2.62 vs 0.92 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown Spartans (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -1.4%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -15.2%

Inter Lions (A) 16.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown Spartans face Inter Lions in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown Spartans a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Inter Lions 17%, so Blacktown Spartans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Blacktown Spartans and 1.1 for Inter Lions (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown Spartans are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 0.92 for Inter Lions. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Blacktown Spartans vs Inter Lions Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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