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FK Beograd vs West Torrens Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 07:30

FK Beograd

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

West Torrens

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.1%0-23.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.7%1-18.2%1-27.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.1%3-15.5%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.4%4+-23.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 2.25 -1.5%

Draw 21.6% 3.75 -11.4%

Away win 34.5% 2.40 -17.2%

Over 2.5 65.9% 1.40 -7.7%

Over 3.5 42.7% 1.90 -18.9%

BTTS 63.4% 1.36 -13.8%

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -1.5%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.4%

West Torrens (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -20.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd2.0

West Torrens1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.67

WEST TORRENS · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.86)

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face West Torrens in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 44% chance, the draw 22% and West Torrens 35%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FK Beograd and 1.8 for West Torrens (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.86 for West Torrens. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-0.

FK Beograd vs West Torrens Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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