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West Adelaide vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:30

West Adelaide

PPG 1.29 · HOME

5 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.29) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.9%0-23.9%0-32.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-03.7%1-17.5%1-27.5%1-35.0%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.4%3-14.7%3-24.7%3-33.2%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.6%4+-23.6%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 37.4% — —

Draw 21.5% — —

Away win 41.1% — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — —

Over 3.5 47.1% — —

BTTS 67.7% — —

Win probability 1X2

West Adelaide (H) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -20.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-5

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob67.7%

A 41% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Adelaide1.9

Croydon Kings2.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.29

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.29) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Match Preview & Prediction

West Adelaide face Croydon Kings in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Adelaide a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Croydon Kings 41%, so Croydon Kings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for West Adelaide and 2.0 for Croydon Kings (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Adelaide are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.67 for Croydon Kings. This match finished 5-5.

West Adelaide vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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