Today / Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Merlo

Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Merlo Prediction

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Caution: Away form (1.80) strong but model favors Home (P=59.9%)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-16.8%0-21.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-026.2%1-18.3%1-21.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-15.1%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.6%3-12.1%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.9% — — —

Draw 30.5% — — —

Away win 9.5% — — —

Over 2.5 20.2% — — —

Over 3.5 7.1% — — —

BTTS 19.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob19.1%

H 60% / xG 1.2-0.3 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 19%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 26.2%

#2 0–0 21.4%

#3 2–0 16.1%

#4 1–1✓ 8.3%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Dalmine1.2

Argentino Merlo0.3

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.2% · O3.5 PROB 7.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.20

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.80) strong but model favors Home (P=59.9%)

Win probability 1X2

Villa Dalmine (H) 59.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Argentino Merlo (A) 9.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Argentino Merlo on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 60% chance, the draw 31% and Argentino Merlo 10%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Villa Dalmine and 0.3 for Argentino Merlo (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 19% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.80 for Argentino Merlo. This match finished 1-1.

Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Merlo Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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