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Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks FC Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:30

Northcote City

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eltham Redbacks FC

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.9%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.2%1-19.8%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-16.5%3-23.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.1%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 57.1% 1.75 -12.5%

Draw 22.4% 24.4% 4.10 -4.9%

Away win 27.6% 30.3% 3.30 -5.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 71.4% 1.40 -11.0%

Over 3.5 40.6% 51.0% 1.96 -20.4%

BTTS 62.1% 73.5% 1.36 -15.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 67.6% 1.48 -20.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 45.7% 2.19 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northcote City2.0

Eltham Redbacks FC1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 1.91

ELTHAM REDBACKS FC · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Northcote City (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -12.5%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.9%

Eltham Redbacks FC (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northcote City face Eltham Redbacks FC in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northcote City a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Eltham Redbacks FC 28%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Northcote City and 1.2 for Eltham Redbacks FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northcote City are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.18 for Eltham Redbacks FC.

Northcote City vs Eltham Redbacks FC Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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