Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / North Geelong Warriors vs Bulleen Lions

North Geelong Warriors vs Bulleen Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 07:00

North Geelong Warriors

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bulleen Lions

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.3%0-25.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.7%1-19.9%1-28.7%1-35.0%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.3%4+-22.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 41.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 48.1% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Geelong Warriors1.6

Bulleen Lions1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH GEELONG WARRIORS · PPG 1.73

BULLEEN LIONS · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

North Geelong Warriors (H) 36.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bulleen Lions (A) 41.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North Geelong Warriors face Bulleen Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Geelong Warriors a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Bulleen Lions 41%, so Bulleen Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for North Geelong Warriors and 1.7 for Bulleen Lions (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Geelong Warriors are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.73 for Bulleen Lions.

North Geelong Warriors vs Bulleen Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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