Today / Iceland - 1. Deild / Njardvik vs Leiknir R.

Njardvik vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Matchday 10 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 19:15

Njardvik

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leiknir R.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-19.6%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.8%1-112.9%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.6%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.1%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 69.4% 1.44 -35.1%

Draw 27.4% 22.7% 4.40 +12.3%

Away win 27.5% 17.9% 5.60 +32.4%

Over 2.5 49.5% 69.0% 1.45 -28.2%

Over 3.5 28.3% 46.5% 2.15 -23.5%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 43.0% 72.5% 1.38 -40.7%

Away O1.5 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -3.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0✓ 13.8%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Njardvik1.3

Leiknir R.0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NJARDVIK · PPG 1.75

LEIKNIR R. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Njardvik (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -35.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +12.3%

Leiknir R. (A) 27.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Njardvik face Leiknir R. in Iceland - 1. Deild on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Njardvik a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Leiknir R. 28%, so Njardvik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Njardvik and 0.9 for Leiknir R. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Njardvik are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.60 for Leiknir R.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Njardvik vs Leiknir R. Prediction— Iceland - 1. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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