Today / S. Italiano vs A. Quilmes

S. Italiano vs A. Quilmes Prediction

Saturday, April 18, 2026

S. Italiano

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

A. Quilmes

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-16.9%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.8%1-110.6%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-18.2%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.4%3-14.2%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 13.4% — — —

Over 2.5 35.2% — — —

Over 3.5 16.2% — — —

BTTS 33.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.9%

H 61% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.8%

#2 2–0 14.5%

#3 0–0✓ 12.2%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Italiano1.5

A. Quilmes0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

S. ITALIANO · PPG 1.80

A. QUILMES · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

S. Italiano (H) 61.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Quilmes (A) 13.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Italiano face A. Quilmes on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Italiano a 61% chance, the draw 25% and A. Quilmes 13%, so S. Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for S. Italiano and 0.6 for A. Quilmes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Italiano are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for A. Quilmes. This match finished 0-0.

S. Italiano vs A. Quilmes Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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