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Real Pilar vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 21:00

Real Pilar

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Laferrere

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+43.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.1%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.6%1-15.9%1-22.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-18.4%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-18.0%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-014.5%4+-111.3%4+-24.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.6% 55.6% 1.80 +43.3%

Draw 12.9% 31.3% 3.20 -58.7%

Away win 7.5% 23.1% 4.33 -67.5%

Over 2.5 70.2% 40.8% 2.45 +72.0%

Over 3.5 49.0% 22.2% 4.50 +120.5%

BTTS 51.2% 47.6% 2.10 +7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.2%

H 80% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–0✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Pilar2.8

D. Laferrere0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.20

D. LAFERRERE · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Real Pilar (H) 79.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +43.3%

Draw 12.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -58.7%

D. Laferrere (A) 7.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -67.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Pilar face D. Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Pilar a 80% chance, the draw 13% and D. Laferrere 8%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Real Pilar and 0.8 for D. Laferrere (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Pilar are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +120.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Real Pilar vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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