Real Pilar vs D. Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Regular Season - 12 Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza· Buenos Aires Saturday, April 18, 2026 21:00

Real Pilar PPG 1.20

1-0 HIT CS5

D. Laferrere PPG 1.00

Over3.5· +120.5% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Pilar face D. Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Pilar a 80% chance, the draw 13% and D. Laferrere 8%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Real Pilar and 0.8 for D. Laferrere (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Pilar are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +120.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 79.6%

Odds: 1.80 EV: +43.3%

Draw 12.9%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -58.7%

Away 7.5%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -67.5%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 70.2% Odds: 2.45 +72.0%

Over 3.5 49.0% Odds: 4.50 +120.5%

BTTS 51.2% Odds: 2.10 +7.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Pilar

2.84

D. Laferrere

0.79

Model SuggestionHome +43.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+120.5%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 52% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)