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Villa San Carlos vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Villa San Carlos

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-111.8%0-24.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.9%2-16.8%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.6%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 43.5% 2.30 +4.0%

Draw 31.2% 35.7% 2.80 -12.6%

Away win 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 38.8% 42.0% 2.38 -7.7%

Over 3.5 18.5% 23.1% 4.33 -11.9%

BTTS 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 28.6% 3.50 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.9%

H 45% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 0–0 17.1%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa San Carlos1.1

Brown DE Adrogue0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA SAN CARLOS · PPG 1.12

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 0.94

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Villa San Carlos (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +4.0%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.6%

Brown DE Adrogue (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa San Carlos face Brown DE Adrogue in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa San Carlos a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Brown DE Adrogue 24%, so Villa San Carlos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Villa San Carlos and 0.7 for Brown DE Adrogue (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa San Carlos are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.94 for Brown DE Adrogue.

Villa San Carlos vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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