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Villa Dalmine vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDD

UPCOMING

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.0%0-115.7%0-25.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.1%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.2%2-14.7%2-21.5%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.2%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 41.5% 2.41 -14.7%

Draw 35.0% 34.4% 2.91 +1.8%

Away win 29.7% 35.2% 2.84 -9.4%

Over 2.5 33.8% 42.9% 2.33 -21.3%

Over 3.5 12.0% 21.7% 4.60 -26.9%

BTTS 41.7% 50.5% 1.98 -17.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Away O1.5 18.8% 31.8% 3.14 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.7%

D 35% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.0%

#2 1–0 18.6%

#3 0–1 15.7%

#4 1–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Dalmine0.8

Arsenal Sarandi0.7

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.75

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 1.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Villa Dalmine (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.41 · IMPLIED 41.5% EV -14.7%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 2.91 · IMPLIED 34.4% EV +1.8%

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 35% chance, the draw 35% and Arsenal Sarandi 30%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Villa Dalmine and 0.7 for Arsenal Sarandi (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.62 for Arsenal Sarandi.

Villa Dalmine vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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