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San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

San Martín Burzaco

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

UPCOMING

Deportivo Armenio

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.6%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.2%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.2%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 37.6% 2.66 +9.3%

Draw 28.5% 32.7% 3.06 -7.7%

Away win 30.5% 40.8% 2.45 -25.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.2% 2.12 +6.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.5% 3.78 +5.1%

BTTS 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Home O1.5 35.2% 36.8% 2.72 -4.3%

Away O1.5 32.2% 38.8% 2.58 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín Burzaco1.2

Deportivo Armenio1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO · PPG 1.06

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martín Burzaco (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +9.3%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.06 · IMPLIED 32.7% EV -7.7%

Deportivo Armenio (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín Burzaco face Deportivo Armenio in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín Burzaco a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Armenio 31%, so San Martín Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Martín Burzaco and 1.0 for Deportivo Armenio (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín Burzaco are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportivo Armenio. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.7%.

San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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