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Sportivo Italiano vs Flandria Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

UPCOMING

Flandria

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-18.3%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-111.6%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-18.1%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.8%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 50.0% 2.00 +1.6%

Draw 26.5% 33.3% 3.00 -12.3%

Away win 22.6% 27.6% 3.62 -10.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 40.2% 2.49 +6.3%

Over 3.5 20.9% 19.6% 5.10 +4.0%

BTTS 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Home O1.5 39.8% 39.5% 2.53 +0.7%

Away O1.5 16.4% 23.8% 4.20 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 12.8%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Italiano1.4

Flandria0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.50

FLANDRIA · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Italiano (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +1.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.3%

Flandria (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.62 · IMPLIED 27.6% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Italiano face Flandria in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Italiano a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Flandria 23%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sportivo Italiano and 0.6 for Flandria (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Italiano are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.62 for Flandria. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Sportivo Italiano vs Flandria Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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