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Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

UPCOMING

Defensores Unidos

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.5%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-112.9%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 48.8% 2.05 -21.1%

Draw 26.7% 31.3% 3.20 -8.7%

Away win 34.8% 29.4% 3.40 +18.3%

Over 2.5 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Over 3.5 27.5% 25.3% 3.95 +5.2%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 39.5% 45.5% 2.20 -13.1%

Away O1.5 32.5% 30.8% 3.25 +5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.4

Defensores Unidos1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.38

DEFENSORES UNIDOS · PPG 0.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.1%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.7%

Defensores Unidos (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face Defensores Unidos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Defensores Unidos 35%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo Merlo and 1.0 for Defensores Unidos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.44 for Defensores Unidos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.6%.

Deportivo Merlo vs Defensores Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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