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UAI Urquiza vs Argentino de Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

UAI Urquiza

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

UPCOMING

Argentino de Merlo

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.9%0-119.4%0-27.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.6%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.7%2-13.5%2-21.3%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.9%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 36.4% 2.75 -13.6%

Draw 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

Away win 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

Over 2.5 31.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.7%

Over 3.5 11.2% 20.0% 5.00 -26.4%

BTTS 41.7% 45.5% 2.20 -8.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 19.6% 30.8% 3.25 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.7%

D 35% / xG 0.6-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.9%

#2 0–1 19.4%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UAI Urquiza0.6

Argentino de Merlo0.7

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.8% · O3.5 PROB 11.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 0.88

ARGENTINO DE MERLO · PPG 1.19

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

42%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 1.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UAI Urquiza (H) 28.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -13.6%

Draw 35.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.6%

Argentino de Merlo (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

UAI Urquiza face Argentino de Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UAI Urquiza a 28% chance, the draw 35% and Argentino de Merlo 37%, so Argentino de Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for UAI Urquiza and 0.7 for Argentino de Merlo (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UAI Urquiza are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.19 for Argentino de Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.7%.

UAI Urquiza vs Argentino de Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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