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Oulu vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 11 ·Thursday, June 18, 2026, 09:59

Oulu

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mariehamn

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-14.0%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.3%1-17.1%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-019.2%2-16.4%2-21.1%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.5%3-13.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-12.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 71.9% 1.39 -6.3%

Draw 22.8% 23.3% 4.30 -1.2%

Away win 9.8% 13.7% 7.30 -17.1%

Over 2.5 44.9% 58.8% 1.70 -23.7%

Over 3.5 24.7% 36.4% 2.75 -19.2%

BTTS 43.2% 54.1% 1.85 -20.1%

Home O1.5 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

Away O1.5 6.7% 22.2% 4.50 -41.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 20.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob43.2%

H 67% / xG 1.8-0.3 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.3%

#2 2–0 19.2%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 3–0 11.5%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oulu1.8

Mariehamn0.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OULU · PPG 3.00

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.20) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oulu (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -6.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -1.2%

Mariehamn (A) 9.8%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oulu face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Thursday, June 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oulu a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Mariehamn 10%, so Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Oulu and 0.3 for Mariehamn (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oulu are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Mariehamn. This match finished 2-1.

Oulu vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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