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Indy Eleven vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 23:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brooklyn FC

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.5%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-18.1%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.5%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-17.7%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 1.64 +2.3%

Draw 20.1% 3.80 -14.2%

Away win 17.6% 4.50 -12.5%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.62 +3.7%

Over 3.5 40.0% 2.50 0.0%

BTTS 55.9% 1.57 -12.2%

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 62.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +2.3%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.2%

Brooklyn FC (A) 17.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.9%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 8.8%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven2.4

Brooklyn FC0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.67

BROOKLYN FC · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=62.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Brooklyn FC in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Brooklyn FC 18%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Indy Eleven and 0.8 for Brooklyn FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Brooklyn FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.0%.

Indy Eleven vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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