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Oakland Roots vs Birmingham L. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 19:00

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Birmingham L.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.4%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.9%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 1.80 -12.3%

Draw 24.9% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 26.4% 3.85 +1.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 1.77 -5.0%

Over 3.5 32.1% 2.95 -5.3%

BTTS 55.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Win probability 1X2

Oakland Roots (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -12.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Birmingham L. (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakland Roots1.6

Birmingham L.1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.57

BIRMINGHAM L. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakland Roots face Birmingham L. in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakland Roots a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Birmingham L. 26%, so Oakland Roots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Oakland Roots and 1.1 for Birmingham L. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakland Roots are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Birmingham L.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +1.5%.

Oakland Roots vs Birmingham L. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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