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Gnistan vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 18:00

Gnistan

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lahti

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.4%0-24.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.2%1-110.9%1-27.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.3%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.3%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 2.45 +13.7%

Draw 24.8% 3.20 -12.4%

Away win 28.9% 2.70 -13.2%

Over 2.5 63.3% 1.93 +22.2%

Over 3.5 40.0% 3.35 +34.0%

BTTS 61.7% 1.67 +3.0%

Win probability 1X2

Gnistan (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Lahti (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gnistan1.7

Lahti1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GNISTAN · PPG 1.80

LAHTI · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gnistan face Lahti in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gnistan a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Lahti 29%, so Gnistan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Gnistan and 1.3 for Lahti (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gnistan are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.75 for Lahti. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.0%.

Gnistan vs Lahti Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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