Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / Oulu vs Jaro

Oulu vs Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 13:00

Oulu

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jaro

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-14.2%0-20.8%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.3%1-17.8%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-018.0%2-17.2%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.2%3-14.5%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-13.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.1% 61.3% 1.63 +9.4%

Draw 23.0% 27.0% 3.70 -8.9%

Away win 9.8% 20.6% 4.85 -31.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 57.1% 1.75 -19.1%

Over 3.5 27.7% 35.1% 2.85 -12.6%

BTTS 44.4% 58.8% 1.70 -24.5%

Home O1.5 55.7% 58.8% 1.70 -5.3%

Away O1.5 6.2% 29.0% 3.45 -47.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.4%

H 67% / xG 1.9-0.4 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.3%

#2 2–0 18.0%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 3–0 11.2%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oulu1.9

Jaro0.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OULU · PPG 3.00

JARO · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

63%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oulu (H) 67.1%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +9.4%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.9%

Jaro (A) 9.8%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oulu face Jaro in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oulu a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Jaro 10%, so Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Oulu and 0.4 for Jaro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oulu are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.40 for Jaro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Oulu vs Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions