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HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mariehamn

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-15.5%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.0%1-19.1%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-17.6%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.2%3-14.2%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-12.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 83.3% 1.20 -32.8%

Draw 24.0% 18.2% 5.50 +19.2%

Away win 20.0% 7.7% 13.00 +96.0%

Over 2.5 46.2% 66.7% 1.50 -30.7%

Over 3.5 27.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.4%

BTTS 45.5% 51.3% 1.95 -11.3%

Home O1.5 49.3% 78.1% 1.28 -36.9%

Away O1.5 7.8% 18.2% 5.50 -34.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.5%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 20.0%

#2 2–0 16.6%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJK Helsinki1.7

Mariehamn0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.75

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.0%

Win probability 1X2

HJK Helsinki (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -32.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +19.2%

Mariehamn (A) 20.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +96.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJK Helsinki face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJK Helsinki a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Mariehamn 20%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for HJK Helsinki and 0.5 for Mariehamn (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJK Helsinki are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Mariehamn. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +96.0%. This match finished 1-0.

HJK Helsinki vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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