Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / Ilves vs Jaro
Ilves vs Jaro Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga
Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, June 17, 2026, 15:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Win probability
Correct score prediction
H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%
Form & verdict
ILVES · PPG 1.80
JARO · PPG 0.33
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=53.7%
Match Preview & Prediction
Ilves face Jaro in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Jaro 24%, so Ilves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ilves and 1.0 for Jaro (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.33 for Jaro. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.8%.