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Universidad de Concepcion vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 00:00

Universidad de Concepcion

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

A. Italiano

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.1%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-113.0%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.1%2-18.4%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.9%3-13.6%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 39.2% 2.55 +20.1%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Away win 25.1% 39.2% 2.55 -21.6%

Over 2.5 45.7% 52.6% 1.90 -13.2%

Over 3.5 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

BTTS 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Home O1.5 38.2% 42.6% 2.35 -10.2%

Away O1.5 26.2% 42.6% 2.35 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad de Concepcion1.3

A. Italiano0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION · PPG 1.86

A. ITALIANO · PPG 0.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Universidad de Concepcion (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +20.1%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

A. Italiano (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad de Concepcion face A. Italiano in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad de Concepcion a 47% chance, the draw 28% and A. Italiano 25%, so Universidad de Concepcion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Universidad de Concepcion and 0.9 for A. Italiano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad de Concepcion are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.29 for A. Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.1%.

Universidad de Concepcion vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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