Today / Chile - Primera División / Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido

Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:30

Palestino

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+28.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.3%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.4%1-111.0%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 36.8% 2.72 +36.5%

Draw 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -13.0%

Away win 25.2% 40.8% 2.45 -23.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 47.6% 2.10 +28.5%

Over 3.5 37.3% 27.0% 3.70 +38.0%

BTTS 59.0% 55.6% 1.80 +6.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 37.0% 2.70 +33.4%

Away O1.5 36.5% 40.8% 2.45 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palestino1.8

Coquimbo Unido1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PALESTINO · PPG 1.88

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.62

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Palestino (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +36.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.0%

Coquimbo Unido (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palestino face Coquimbo Unido in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palestino a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Coquimbo Unido 25%, so Palestino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Palestino and 1.2 for Coquimbo Unido (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palestino are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.62 for Coquimbo Unido. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.1%.

Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions