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Cobresal vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:30

Cobresal

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union La Calera

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+18.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.1%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.2%1-110.7%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.5%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 41.7% 2.40 +13.5%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 28.1% 37.6% 2.66 -15.2%

Over 2.5 61.2% 51.8% 1.93 +18.1%

Over 3.5 37.3% 29.9% 3.35 +24.9%

BTTS 60.1% 58.8% 1.70 +2.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 42.6% 2.35 +16.1%

Away O1.5 40.8% 40.0% 2.50 +2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.1%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobresal1.8

Union La Calera1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRESAL · PPG 1.29

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cobresal (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +13.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Union La Calera (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobresal face Union La Calera in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobresal a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Union La Calera 28%, so Cobresal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cobresal and 1.3 for Union La Calera (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobresal are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Union La Calera. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.6%.

Cobresal vs Union La Calera Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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