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Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 21:30

Universidad de Chile

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Huachipato

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-16.4%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-110.7%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.4%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.5%3-15.1%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 62.1% 1.61 -11.1%

Draw 24.4% 26.3% 3.80 -4.4%

Away win 20.4% 20.6% 4.85 -0.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

BTTS 48.7% 55.6% 1.80 -12.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 27.0% 3.70 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad de Chile1.7

Huachipato0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE · PPG 2.14

HUACHIPATO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universidad de Chile (H) 55.2%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -11.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.4%

Huachipato (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad de Chile face Huachipato in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad de Chile a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Huachipato 20%, so Universidad de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Universidad de Chile and 0.7 for Huachipato (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad de Chile are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.00 for Huachipato. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +2.6%.

Universidad de Chile vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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