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Deportivo Maipu vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 14, 2026, 19:30

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 2.14 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-115.8%0-26.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.2%1-113.0%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.7%2-15.4%2-22.1%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.8%3-11.5%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 48.8% 2.05 -26.2%

Draw 33.4% 39.2% 2.55 -14.8%

Away win 30.6% 22.2% 4.50 +37.7%

Over 2.5 34.9% 37.0% 2.70 -5.8%

Over 3.5 18.2% 18.2% 5.50 +0.1%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

Away O1.5 24.3% 23.1% 4.33 +3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.2%

#4 0–1✓ 15.8%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maipu0.8

Tristan Suarez0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 2.14

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.14) > Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maipu (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -26.2%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.8%

Tristan Suarez (A) 30.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +37.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maipu face Tristan Suarez in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maipu a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Tristan Suarez 31%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.8 for Tristan Suarez (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maipu are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.71 for Tristan Suarez. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Deportivo Maipu vs Tristan Suarez Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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