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Chacarita Juniors vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Agropecuario

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-18.6%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-111.6%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-17.8%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.8%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 44.4% 2.25 +15.7%

Draw 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

Away win 20.9% 29.9% 3.35 -18.0%

Over 2.5 37.3% 33.3% 3.00 +11.9%

Over 3.5 18.8% 15.4% 6.50 +13.3%

BTTS 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Home O1.5 38.3% 33.9% 2.95 +13.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.8% 4.20 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.4%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.9%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chacarita Juniors1.3

Agropecuario0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 1.70

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chacarita Juniors (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.5%

Agropecuario (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chacarita Juniors face Agropecuario in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chacarita Juniors a 51% chance, the draw 28% and Agropecuario 21%, so Chacarita Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Chacarita Juniors and 0.6 for Agropecuario (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chacarita Juniors are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.64 for Agropecuario. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.4%.

Chacarita Juniors vs Agropecuario Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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