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Almirante Brown vs Racing Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing Cordoba

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+21.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.2%0-18.6%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.4%1-110.6%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-16.5%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.6%3-12.7%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 43.5% 2.30 +21.2%

Draw 28.8% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

Away win 18.5% 26.7% 3.75 -18.4%

Over 2.5 33.6% 29.4% 3.40 +14.2%

Over 3.5 17.1% 11.1% 9.00 +32.3%

BTTS 44.5% 40.0% 2.50 +11.3%

Home O1.5 33.1% 32.3% 3.10 +2.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 21.1% 4.75 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.5%

H 53% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.4%

#2 0–0 18.2%

#3 2–0 13.8%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almirante Brown1.2

Racing Cordoba0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.91

RACING CORDOBA · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Almirante Brown (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +21.2%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.8%

Racing Cordoba (A) 18.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almirante Brown face Racing Cordoba in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almirante Brown a 53% chance, the draw 29% and Racing Cordoba 19%, so Almirante Brown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Almirante Brown and 0.5 for Racing Cordoba (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almirante Brown are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.55 for Racing Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.3%.

Almirante Brown vs Racing Cordoba Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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