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Deportivo Madryn vs All Boys Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 19:00

Deportivo Madryn

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

All Boys

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-15.9%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.2%1-19.9%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.3%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.5%3-14.6%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-12.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Draw 24.1% 36.4% 2.75 -20.2%

Away win 21.2% 20.8% 4.80 +1.1%

Over 2.5 45.7% 29.4% 3.40 +55.4%

Over 3.5 26.8% 14.3% 7.00 +52.6%

BTTS 48.5% 40.0% 2.50 +21.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 38.2% 2.62 +29.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 14.3% 7.00 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Madryn1.7

All Boys0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MADRYN · PPG 1.60

ALL BOYS · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Madryn (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +4.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -20.2%

All Boys (A) 21.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Madryn face All Boys in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Madryn a 55% chance, the draw 24% and All Boys 21%, so Deportivo Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportivo Madryn and 0.5 for All Boys (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Madryn are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.55 for All Boys. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +78.8%.

Deportivo Madryn vs All Boys Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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