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San Telmo vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

San Telmo

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Miguel

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-110.6%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.8%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-17.7%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 29.0% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 44.0% — — —

Over 3.5 22.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 33.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Telmo1.2

San Miguel0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN TELMO · PPG 1.27

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Telmo (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

San Miguel (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Telmo face San Miguel in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Telmo a 46% chance, the draw 29% and San Miguel 26%, so San Telmo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Telmo and 0.7 for San Miguel (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Telmo are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.00 for San Miguel.

San Telmo vs San Miguel Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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