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Temperley vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:30

Temperley

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-17.0%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.4%1-111.2%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-14.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 50.0% 2.00 +5.6%

Draw 25.7% 36.4% 2.75 -17.6%

Away win 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Over 2.5 45.7% 30.8% 3.25 +48.5%

Over 3.5 26.0% 14.3% 7.00 +49.2%

BTTS 48.7% 39.2% 2.55 +24.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 35.7% 2.80 +38.3%

Away O1.5 20.3% 19.0% 5.25 +4.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 195 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 66%

ROI -2.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Temperley1.6

Gimnasia Y Tiro0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TEMPERLEY · PPG 2.10

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Temperley (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -17.6%

Gimnasia Y Tiro (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Temperley face Gimnasia Y Tiro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Temperley a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Gimnasia Y Tiro 21%, so Temperley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Temperley and 0.7 for Gimnasia Y Tiro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Temperley are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.89 for Gimnasia Y Tiro. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +56.4%.

Temperley vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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